ARGH 2000 Projected Records

I've included two kinds of projected records for each team:

Paper record, based strictly on which team projects to win a particular matchup. This projection is easy to reproduce, but has the disadvantage that too many teams are projected to either win or lose all their games.
Probable record, which is based on the probability the team has to win each of its games. This projection is more accurate overall, but has the disadvantage in that most teams are projected to have records near .500 and in that nobody is ever projected to go unbeaten or winless. This projection might best be used as an over/under for the number of wins the team will have during the season.

All records are calculated after power ratings are known. Conference championship games and bowl games are not included because matchups are not known.

Atlantic Coast Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Florida State	1	12-0	10-2
Georgia Tech	19	8-4	8-4
Clemson	34	9-2	7-4
Virginia	38	8-3	6-5
Maryland	54	5-6	6-5
North Carolina	56	5-6	5-6
North Carolina State	64	4-7	5-6
Duke	91	0-11	3-8
Wake Forest	92	2-9	4-7

The Big East	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Virginia Tech	10	11-1	9-3
Miami, Florida	12	9-2	8-3
Syracuse	37	7-4	7-4
Boston College	53	6-5	6-5
Pittsburgh	72	6-5	5-6
West Virginia	80	5-6	5-6
Temple	102	2-9	4-7
Rutgers	111	3-8	3-8

Big Ten Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Wisconsin	3	12-0	10-2
Michigan	9	8-3	7-4
Ohio State	11	9-2	7-4
Michigan State	14	7-4	6-5
Penn State	17	9-3	7-5
Purdue	20	8-3	7-4
Illinois	30	6-5	6-5
Minnesota	36	7-4	6-5
Indiana	50	4-7	5-6
Northwestern	71	4-7	4-7
Iowa	89	1-11	3-9

Big 12 Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Nebraska	2	10-1	9-2
Kansas State	4	12-0	10-2
Colorado	43	3-8	5-6
Missouri	44	6-5	6-5
Kansas	51	5-6	5-6
Iowa State	65	5-6	5-6

Texas	8	11-0	9-2
Texas A&M	15	9-2	7-4
Oklahoma	24	7-4	7-4
Oklahoma State	55	4-7	6-5
Texas Tech	77	6-6	5-7
Baylor	110	1-10	2-9

Big West	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Boise State	63	10-1	7-4
Idaho	76	7-4	6-5
New Mexico State	86	5-6	5-6
Utah State	97	4-7	4-7
Arkansas State	104	3-8	4-7
North Texas	112	2-9	4-7

Conference USA	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Southern Mississippi	21	9-2	7-4
Tulane	40	8-3	7-4
East Carolina	41	8-3	7-4
Cincinnati	57	4-7	5-6
Memphis	59	6-5	5-6
Louisville	66	4-7	6-5
UAB	70	6-5	6-5
Houston	75	3-8	4-7
Army	96	0-11	3-8

MAC	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Marshall	25	10-1	8-3
Miami, OH	68	6-5	6-5
Ohio	83	5-6	6-5
Akron	84	6-5	6-5
Bowling Green	87	6-5	5-6
Kent	115	2-9	3-8
Buffalo	117	0-11	1-10

Toledo	74	7-4	7-4
Western Michigan	81	8-3	6-5
Northern Illinois	90	4-7	5-6
Eastern Michigan	93	4-7	6-5
Central Michigan	103	3-8	4-7
Ball State	116	3-8	3-8

Mountain West Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Colorado State	28	9-2	8-3
Utah	32	11-0	8-3
Brigham Young	49	5-7	6-6
Wyoming	61	6-5	6-5
Air Force	69	7-4	6-5
San Diego State	79	1-10	4-7
New Mexico	88	2-10	5-7
UNLV	100	3-9	4-8

Pac 10 Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Washington	16	10-1	8-3
Southern California	18	10-2	8-4
UCLA	26	7-4	6-5
Oregon	29	7-4	6-5
Arizona	42	5-6	5-6
Stanford	46	4-7	5-6
Oregon State	47	6-5	6-5
Arizona State	48	6-5	6-5
California	58	3-8	4-7
Washington State	94	0-11	3-8

Southeastern Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Alabama	5	10-1	8-3
Mississippi	22	8-3	7-4
Mississippi State	27	6-5	6-5
Arkansas	31	6-5	6-5
Auburn	33	6-5	6-5
Louisiana State	45	5-6	5-6

Tennessee	6	10-1	8-3
Florida	7	9-2	8-3
Georgia	13	10-1	7-4
Kentucky	35	6-5	6-5
Vanderbilt	52	4-7	5-6
South Carolina	106	2-9	2-9

Western Athletic Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Texas Christian	23	11-0	9-2
Fresno State	60	6-5	6-5
Rice	67	7-4	6-5
UTEP	78	8-3	5-6
Southern Methodist	82	4-8	6-6
Tulsa	95	2-10	4-8
Hawaii	99	5-7	5-7
San Jose State	105	1-11	4-8
Nevada	109	1-11	3-9

Independents	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Notre Dame	39	6-5	6-5
Louisiana Tech	62	8-4	6-6
Central Florida	73	5-6	6-5
Navy	85	5-6	5-6
LA-Monroe	98	4-7	4-7
Middle Tennessee State	101	5-6	4-7
LA-Lafayette	108	4-7	4-7
Connecticut	114	4-7	4-7

Rankings above are ARGH Power Rankings based on 117 teams or groups of teams. To convert to a pure Division 1-A ranking, subtract 1 if the team in question is ranked 108-112; subtract 2 if the team in question is ranked 114 or higher.

Projected out of conference records, by conference

	Paper Record	Probable Record
Big Ten	31-5	25-11
SEC	34-2	27-9
Big Twelve	31-7	28-10
Pac-10	18-13	18-13
ACC	17-12	18-11
Conference USA	17-20	18-19
Big East	21-12	19-14
Mountain West	16-19	18-17
WAC	9-23	12-20
Independents	31-38	30-39
Big West	16-20	15-21
MAC	14-29	17-26

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