The following are the preliminary pre-season ARGH power ratings for the 114 Division 1-A teams for 1999, including two new teams: Middle Tennessee State and Buffalo. These ratings are calculated as of information and estimates available February 1, 1999, and are not final. The final pre-season ratings will be released in mid-July.

These power ratings are computed using the following factors: Previous year's power rating; second previous year's power rating; number of returning starters (this is estimated for the pre-preseason ratings); whether the coach is returning; and whether the starting quarterback is returning. The strength of each factor varies each year based on what has happened in the three previous years. This year, the factor for returning coach is down a little, as is the factor for previous year's power rating; the factor for returning starters is up from an already high factor last year, and the factors for second previous year's power rating and returning quarterback are both up. In previous years, I've used a factor for previous year's strength of schedule; but that has disappeared this year. That is considered temporary for now, but may become permanent if it doesn't reappear in a big hurry.

The estimated home field advantage for 1999 is *tentatively* .594. I expect to do some research into a least-squares method of calculating home field advantage over the next couple of months; if the method works, the system home field advantage will change and probably decrease. Home field advantage is the estimated chance that the home team would win a game between two otherwise equal teams. The previous passage was written in February; I've since done most of the necessary research, and I expect the home field advantage for 1994 to drop to about .584.

Click here to send me feedback.

The following are the preseason power ratings for the various conferences:

Return to ARGH main page