ARGH Power Ratings (9-19-99)

The following are the ARGH power ratings after games of September 18, 1999.

The estimated home field advantage is .588. Home field advantage is the estimated chance that the home team would win a game between two otherwise equal teams.

A note for those of you who look only at the won-lost records of a team: let me remind you that this system looks not only at a team's record, but at how many points they scored and gave up, how many home games a team has played, who they've played, who they've played, and so on. If you expect a 1-3 team that has lost close games to three top ten teams -- for the sake of argument, let's call this team Notre Dame -- to be somewhere in the bottom part of the rankings, then you're bound to be disappointed. The system judges the team's results, but it also judges the context in which the team achieved the results, and each week it adjusts that context based on the results of that week. As a result, a team that loses can rise in the ratings, and a team that wins can drop. And a team can be ranked above someone that has beaten them. The key is that all teams are judged consistently.

This doesn't mean that there aren't ratings that I can't make sense of, especially early in the season where putting together power ratings is as much art as science. And it doesn't mean that there aren't quirks in the system; every system has them. But the hypothetical Notre Dame team I mentioned has been handled quite properly... much though I might wish it weren't...

This Week Last Week Team Record Power Rating
1 1 Florida St. 3 - 0 0.851
2 5 Nebraska 3 - 0 0.839
3 3 Michigan 3 - 0 0.823
4 2 Tennessee 1 - 1 0.818
5 4 Texas A&M 2 - 0 0.797
6 13 Michigan St. 3 - 0 0.796
7 6 Purdue 3 - 0 0.794
8 9 Florida 3 - 0 0.780
9 7 Penn State 4 - 0 0.763
10 12 Miami, Florida 2 - 1 0.754
11 16 Georgia Tech 2 - 1 0.753
12 20 Syracuse 2 - 1 0.753
13 8 Ohio St. 2 - 1 0.744
14 11 Marshall 3 - 0 0.743
15 10 Notre Dame 1 - 3 0.725
16 14 Texas 3 - 1 0.712
17 32 Oregon 2 - 1 0.710
18 17 Kansas St. 2 - 0 0.699
19 15 Wisconsin 2 - 1 0.696
20 34 Southern Mississippi 2 - 1 0.694
21 18 Georgia 2 - 0 0.693
22 19 Southern California 2 - 0 0.693
23 23 Alabama 2 - 1 0.686
24 24 Virginia Tech 2 - 0 0.685
25 25 Arkansas 2 - 0 0.679
26 27 Air Force 2 - 0 0.661
27 41 Mississippi St. 3 - 0 0.639
28 37 Virginia 2 - 1 0.630
29 33 Colorado 2 - 1 0.628
30 21 UCLA 2 - 1 0.624
31 59 Houston 2 - 1 0.621
32 58 Auburn 3 - 0 0.621
33 29 Miami, Ohio 2 - 1 0.620
34 38 Utah 2 - 0 0.605
35 22 Mississippi 2 - 1 0.602
36 39 Minnesota 3 - 0 0.602
37 53 Brigham Young 2 - 0 0.591
38 45 East Carolina 3 - 0 0.587
39 36 North Carolina 1 - 1 0.581
40 30 Colorado St. 2 - 1 0.581
41 46 Stanford 2 - 1 0.581
42 44 Oklahoma St. 2 - 1 0.579
43 47 Louisiana Tech 2 - 2 0.575
44 26 North Carolina St. 3 - 1 0.575
45 43 Missouri 2 - 0 0.562
46 28 Louisiana St. 2 - 1 0.560
47 62 Illinois 3 - 0 0.558
48 52 Idaho 2 - 1 0.556
49 68 Maryland 3 - 0 0.555
50 74 New Mexico St. 3 - 0 0.548
51 42 Washington 0 - 2 0.546
52 55 Oklahoma 2 - 0 0.545
53 54 Wyoming 1 - 1 0.544
54 63 Iowa St. 3 - 0 0.542
55 51 Tulane 2 - 1 0.540
56 49 Louisville 2 - 1 0.532
57 60 Clemson 1 - 1 0.499
58 31 Arizona St. 1 - 1 0.496
59 35 West Virginia 1 - 2 0.479
60 50 Oregon St. 3 - 0 0.466
61 57 Kansas 1 - 2 0.465
62 69 San Diego St. 1 - 2 0.464
63 66 Pittsburgh 2 - 1 0.459
64 67 Toledo 1 - 1 0.451
65 48 Arizona 2 - 2 0.448
66 71 Western Michigan 1 - 2 0.443
67 56 Indiana 1 - 2 0.436
68 72 Kentucky 2 - 1 0.436
69 40 Texas Tech 1 - 2 0.435
70 81 Vanderbilt 2 - 1 0.432
71 70 Central Florida 0 - 3 0.429
72 84 Memphis 1 - 2 0.428
73 73 Texas Christian 0 - 2 0.417
74 76 AL-Birmingham 0 - 2 0.416
75 79 California 1 - 1 0.413
76 75 Rice 0 - 3 0.397
77 65 Duke 0 - 2 0.393
78 98 New Mexico 1 - 2 0.388
79 95 Cincinnati 2 - 1 0.388
80 77 Fresno St. 1 - 2 0.382
81 80 Wake Forest 1 - 1 0.381
82 61 Nevada 0 - 3 0.381
83 64 Washington St. 0 - 3 0.378
84 85 Boston College 2 - 0 0.377
85 93 San Jose St. 1 - 2 0.373
86 86 Iowa 1 - 2 0.370
87 82 Utah St. 1 - 2 0.364
88 83 Bowling Green 1 - 2 0.363
89 89 Northwestern 2 - 1 0.342
90 87 Southern Methodist 0 - 2 0.339
91 92 Rutgers 0 - 2 0.332
92 90 Navy 1 - 2 0.318
93 96 Eastern Michigan 0 - 2 0.309
94 78 Baylor 0 - 3 0.301
95 99 Central Michigan 1 - 2 0.296
96 94 Tulsa 1 - 2 0.292
97 91 Nevada-Las Vegas 2 - 1 0.279
98 100 Texas-El Paso 1 - 2 0.275
99 88 South Carolina 0 - 3 0.266
100 101 Army 0 - 2 0.263
101 104 Ohio 0 - 3 0.246
102 105 Arkansas St. 0 - 3 0.244
103 97 Boise State 1 - 2 0.234
104 103 Akron 2 - 1 0.226
105 112 Middle Tennessee St. 1 - 2 0.214
106 102 Northeast Louisiana 1 - 2 0.205
107 109 Northern Illinois 0 - 3 0.190
108 108 Ball St. 0 - 3 0.188
109 106 SW Louisiana 0 - 3 0.186
110 107 North Texas 1 - 2 0.176
111 113 Hawaii 2 - 1 0.174
112 111 Connecticut 1 - 2 0.161
113 110 Temple 0 - 3 0.157
114 114 Kent 0 - 3 0.155
115 115 Wild Card U. 4 - 32 0.116
116 116 Buffalo 0 - 2 0.068

The following are the current power ratings for the various conferences:

Conference OOC RecordPower Rating
Big Ten 27-7 .629
SEC 19-4 .601
Big Twelve 21-8 .592
ACC 11-3 .580
Pac-10 13-10 .535
Mountain West 12-6.514
Big East 11-10 .499
Conference USA 12-9.496
Independents 6-17 .379
Big West 8-13 .353
WAC 6-16 .331
MAC 7-21 .331

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