ARGH 2004 Projected Records

I've included two kinds of projected records for each team:

Paper record, based strictly on which team projects to win a particular matchup. This projection is easy to reproduce, but has the disadvantage that too many teams are projected to either win or lose all their games.
Probable record, which is based on the probability the team has to win each of its games. This projection is more accurate overall, but has the disadvantage in that most teams are projected to have records near .500 and in that nobody is ever projected to go unbeaten or winless. This projection might best be used as an over/under for the number of wins the team will have during the season.

All records are calculated after power ratings are known. Conference championship games and bowl games are not included because matchups are not known.

Atlantic Coast Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Florida State	13	8-3	7-4
Clemson	26	7-4	6-5
North Carolina State	31	7-4	6-5
Maryland	38	5-6	6-5
Boston College	39	4-7	6-5
Wake Forest	55	5-6	5-6

Miami, Florida	5	9-2	8-3
Virginia Tech	15	9-2	7-4
Virginia	18	10-1	7-4
Georgia Tech	25	6-5	6-5
North Carolina	49	4-7	4-7
Duke	83	3-8	4-7

The Big East	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Louisville	21	11-0	8-3
Pittsburgh	37	8-3	7-4
Syracuse	58	5-6	5-6
West Virginia	64	4-7	6-5
Connecticut	65	6-5	6-5
Rutgers	71	7-4	6-5
South Florida	74	4-7	5-6
Cincinnati	85	4-7	5-6

Big Ten Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Ohio State	7	10-1	8-3
Michigan	9	10-1	8-3
Iowa	11	9-2	8-3
Purdue	14	10-1	8-3
Minnesota	28	7-4	6-5
Wisconsin	33	5-7	7-5
Michigan State	42	6-5	6-5
Northwestern	50	5-6	5-6
Penn State	56	6-5	6-5
Illinois	96	1-10	3-8
Indiana	100	3-8	3-8

Big 12 Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Colorado	22	8-3	6-5
Kansas	41	6-5	6-5
Kansas State	47	5-6	6-5
Iowa State	52	5-6	6-5
Missouri	57	6-5	5-6
Nebraska	60	6-5	5-6

Texas	2	10-1	8-3
Oklahoma	4	10-1	8-3
Texas A&M	16	6-5	7-4
Texas Tech	24	8-3	7-4
Oklahoma State	29	7-4	7-4
Baylor	91	2-9	3-8

Conference USA	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Southern Mississippi	53	7-4	7-4
UAB	61	7-4	7-4
Memphis	73	8-3	6-5
Marshall	95	4-7	5-6
East Carolina	113	2-9	3-8
Central Florida	117	0-11	3-8

UTEP	70	7-4	6-5
Houston	76	6-5	6-5
Tulane	80	8-3	6-5
Southern Methodist	87	6-5	5-6
Tulsa	90	3-8	4-7
Rice	102	3-8	4-7

MAC	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Miami, OH	48	9-2	7-4
Bowling Green	43	8-3	7-4
Akron	94	5-6	5-6
Kent	98	3-8	5-6
Ohio	111	2-9	3-8
Buffalo	119	2-9	3-8

Toledo	59	9-2	7-4
Northern Illinois	69	8-3	6-5
Central Michigan	107	3-8	4-7
Ball State	108	2-9	3-8
Eastern Michigan	112	4-7	4-7
Western Michigan	114	4-7	4-7

Temple	109	1-10	2-9

Mountain West Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Utah	20	11-0	8-3
New Mexico	40	8-3	6-5
Wyoming	45	6-5	6-5
Colorado State	54	5-6	6-5
Brigham Young	62	6-5	6-5
Air Force	72	5-6	5-6
San Diego State	75	4-8	5-7
Texas Christian	77	3-8	5-6
UNLV	99	2-9	4-7

Pac 10 Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Southern California	1	12-0	10-2
California	17	9-2	8-3
Arizona State	19	6-5	7-4
Oregon State	30	6-5	6-5
Washington State	34	8-3	6-5
UCLA	35	7-4	6-5
Oregon	44	5-6	5-6
Stanford	51	5-6	5-6
Arizona	67	4-7	4-7
Washington	79	2-9	4-7

Southeastern Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Auburn	3	9-2	8-3
Louisiana State	10	11-0	8-3
Arkansas	32	6-5	6-5
Alabama	46	5-6	6-5
Mississippi	63	5-6	5-6
Mississippi State	82	3-8	4-7

Georgia	6	10-1	8-3
Tennessee	8	10-1	8-3
Florida	23	8-3	7-4
South Carolina	66	5-6	5-6
Vanderbilt	88	3-8	4-7
Kentucky	93	2-9	3-8

Sun Belt	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Troy State	78	8-3	6-5
Middle Tennessee State	81	7-4	6-5
North Texas	92	6-5	5-6
LA-Monroe	97	4-7	5-6
LA-Lafayette	101	4-7	5-6
Florida Atlantic	104	3-8	4-7
Arkansas State	106	4-7	5-6
Florida International	118	2-9	4-7

Western Athletic Conference	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Boise State	12	11-1	9-3
Fresno State	27	9-3	8-4
Louisiana Tech	68	7-4	6-5
Hawaii	84	5-7	5-7
Nevada	89	5-6	5-6
New Mexico State	103	3-9	4-8
Idaho	105	1-10	4-7
Utah State	115	2-10	4-8
San Jose State	116	3-8	3-8

Independents	Ranking	Paper Record	Probable Record
Notre Dame	36	5-6	5-6
Army	110	3-8	4-7
Navy	86	5-6	5-6

Rankings above are ARGH Power Rankings based on Division 1-A teams only.

Projected out of conference records, by conference

	Paper Record	Probable Record
ACC	29-7	26-10
Pac-10	24-7	21-10
Big Twelve	31-5	27-9
Big Ten	28-6	24-10
SEC	29-7	25-11
Big East	21-11	20-12
Mountain West	14-14	15-13
Independents	11-18	13-16
WAC	10-22	12-20
Conference USA	13-23	15-21
MAC	8-31	11-28
Sun Belt	10-22	11-21

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