ARGH 2021 Power Ratings

The following are the preliminary ARGH power ratings for the 2021 season. Teams currently included are the 130 Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) teams.

Preliminary ratings are especially preliminary after the oddball 2020 season, where determining the differences in quality between conferences was especially difficult. Because of the one-time nature of the 2020 season, I made the following adjustments to the initial 2021 ratings: (1) Recruiting factor, which ordinarily would have disappeared, was applied at the same rate as for 2020. (2) The factor for returning starters was applied at half strength because so many schools returned virtually everybody due to the one-time exemption for this season.Any forfeits that take place during the season will be ignored and treated as no contests. These ratings are designed to take into account only those games that are actually played.

The estimated home field advantage is .557, or about 3.00 points for an average game. The power ratings represent the chance that the team in question has of beating an average FBS team without regard to location.

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Revised 8-26-21

This WeekLast Week Team 2020 Record Power Rating SOS
1 1 Alabama 13 - 0 0.812 0
2 4 Oklahoma 9 - 2 0.782 0
3 9 Louisiana 10 - 1 0.770 0
4 8 Iowa St. 9 - 3 0.756 0
5 6 Clemson 10 - 2 0.745 0
6 3 Ohio St. 7 - 1 0.734 0
7 10 Georgia 8 - 2 0.733 0
8 7 Coastal Carolina 11 - 1 0.730 0
9 5 Cincinnati 9 - 1 0.717 0
10 25 Wisconsin 4 - 3 0.698 0
11 20 Southern California 5 - 1 0.693 0
12 16 Iowa 6 - 2 0.686 0
13 11 Texas A&M 9 - 1 0.685 0
14 22 Miami, Florida 8 - 3 0.679 0
15 14 Oklahoma St. 8 - 3 0.678 0
16 18 Ball St. 7 - 1 0.668 0
17 21 Indiana 6 - 2 0.656 0
18 2 Brigham Young 11 - 1 0.655 0
19 27 Liberty 10 - 1 0.652 0
20 35 North Carolina 8 - 4 0.651 0
21 32 Oregon 4 - 3 0.648 0
22 17 San Jose St. 7 - 1 0.646 0
23 23 Texas Christian 6 - 4 0.642 0
24 36 Arizona St. 2 - 2 0.641 0
25 12 Notre Dame 10 - 2 0.641 0
26 33 Nevada 7 - 2 0.637 0
27 13 Texas 7 - 3 0.630 0
28 49 UCLA 3 - 4 0.623 0
29 40 Washington 3 - 1 0.623 0
30 24 Appalachian St. 9 - 3 0.617 0
31 29 Boise State 5 - 2 0.615 0
32 37 Utah 3 - 2 0.610 0
33 55 Penn State 4 - 5 0.608 0
34 30 West Virginia 6 - 4 0.604 0
35 48 Toledo 4 - 2 0.602 0
36 70 Minnesota 3 - 4 0.591 0
37 61 Louisiana St. 5 - 5 0.581 0
38 43 Auburn 6 - 5 0.580 0
39 66 Texas-San Antonio 7 - 5 0.580 0
40 41 Colorado 4 - 2 0.576 0
41 64 Wake Forest 4 - 5 0.574 0
42 71 Central Michigan 3 - 3 0.559 0
43 26 Florida 8 - 4 0.559 0
44 19 Buffalo 6 - 1 0.556 0
45 34 Tulsa 6 - 3 0.554 0
46 54 Western Michigan 4 - 2 0.553 0
47 42 Central Florida 6 - 4 0.551 0
48 50 Miami, Ohio 2 - 1 0.550 0
49 57 Mississippi 5 - 5 0.548 0
50 39 AL-Birmingham 6 - 3 0.548 0
51 56 Georgia St. 6 - 4 0.545 0
52 69 California 1 - 3 0.544 0
53 65 Boston College 6 - 5 0.543 0
54 31 Army 9 - 3 0.536 0
55 76 Nebraska 3 - 5 0.535 0
56 15 Northwestern 7 - 2 0.535 0
57 28 Marshall 7 - 3 0.531 0
58 47 Southern Methodist 7 - 3 0.530 0
59 85 Florida Atlantic 5 - 4 0.530 0
60 44 San Diego St. 4 - 4 0.526 0
61 59 Kansas St. 4 - 6 0.522 0
62 52 North Carolina St. 8 - 4 0.520 0
63 53 Pittsburgh 6 - 5 0.520 0
64 92 Rutgers 3 - 6 0.519 0
65 62 Virginia 5 - 5 0.518 0
66 63 Hawaii 5 - 4 0.517 0
67 81 Wyoming 2 - 4 0.516 0
68 79 Maryland 2 - 3 0.516 0
69 58 Tulane 6 - 6 0.515 0
70 87 Mississippi St. 4 - 7 0.515 0
71 51 Memphis 8 - 3 0.514 0
72 74 Washington St. 1 - 3 0.513 0
73 38 Stanford 4 - 2 0.509 0
74 75 Baylor 2 - 7 0.504 0
75 72 Houston 3 - 5 0.503 0
76 86 Oregon St. 2 - 5 0.500 0
77 45 Air Force 3 - 3 0.500 0
78 80 Missouri 5 - 5 0.499 0
79 83 Michigan 2 - 4 0.491 0
80 89 Fresno St. 3 - 3 0.479 0
81 84 Louisville 4 - 7 0.474 0
82 82 Purdue 2 - 4 0.470 0
83 46 Georgia Southern 8 - 5 0.464 0
84 73 Ohio 2 - 1 0.460 0
85 78 Troy 5 - 6 0.459 0
86 91 Eastern Michigan 2 - 4 0.457 0
87 97 East Carolina 3 - 6 0.454 0
88 102 Florida St. 3 - 6 0.450 0
89 60 Virginia Tech 5 - 6 0.450 0
90 88 Arkansas 3 - 7 0.450 0
91 67 Kent St. 3 - 1 0.447 0
92 68 Texas Tech 4 - 6 0.440 0
93 90 Louisiana Tech 5 - 5 0.435 0
94 96 Michigan St. 2 - 5 0.423 0
95 77 Kentucky 5 - 6 0.417 0
96 99 Colorado St. 1 - 3 0.400 0
97 101 Illinois 2 - 6 0.381 0
98 104 Georgia Tech 3 - 7 0.379 0
99 94 Arkansas St. 4 - 7 0.371 0
100 93 Rice 2 - 3 0.365 0
101 98 New Mexico 2 - 5 0.362 0
102 119 Syracuse 1 - 10 0.360 0
103 95 Tennessee 3 - 7 0.337 0
104 113 Northern Illinois 0 - 6 0.333 0
105 106 Texas St. 2 - 10 0.331 0
106 105 Navy 3 - 7 0.330 0
107 110 North Texas 4 - 6 0.315 0
108 100 South Alabama 4 - 7 0.308 0
109 107 Charlotte 2 - 4 0.300 0
110 111 Middle Tennessee 3 - 6 0.296 0
111 124 Florida International 0 - 5 0.286 0
112 108 South Carolina 2 - 8 0.284 0
113 112 Arizona 0 - 5 0.281 0
114 109 Southern Mississippi 3 - 7 0.279 0
115 117 South Florida 1 - 8 0.279 0
116 123 Kansas 0 - 9 0.274 0
117 116 Texas-El Paso 3 - 5 0.273 0
118 120 Nevada-Las Vegas 0 - 6 0.272 0
119 115 Duke 2 - 9 0.268 0
120 103 Western Kentucky 5 - 7 0.266 0
121 114 Utah St. 1 - 5 0.260 0
122 122 Akron 1 - 5 0.240 0
123 118 Temple 1 - 6 0.239 0
124 NA Connecticut 0 - 0 0.228 0
125 128 Vanderbilt 0 - 9 0.212 0
126 126 Bowling Green 0 - 5 0.178 0
127 129 LA-Monroe 0 - 10 0.169 0
128 127 Wild Card U. 2 - 34 0.168 0
129 125 Massachusetts 0 - 4 0.165 0
130 NA Old Dominion 0 - 0 0.162 0
131 121 New Mexico St. 1 - 1 0.122 0

2021 conference power ratings:

Conference2021 Record Power Rating
Big Twelve 0-0 .583
Pac-12 0-0 .563
Big Ten 0-0 .560
SEC 0-0 .515
ACC 0-0 .510
Mountain West 0-0.477
Sun Belt 0-0 .476
AAC 0-0 .471
MAC 0-0 .467
Independents 0-0 .428
Conference USA 0-0.369

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